A Probabilistic Streamflow Reconstruction Method to Support Coupled Human-Natural Systems Evaluations in Data-Scarce Reservoir Systems

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Poster GC31V-0105 presented in the Multisector Dynamics: Science and Modeling for Societal Transformation session. Co-authors: Andrew L. Hamilton and Patrick M. Reed.

The poster describes the flow-duration-curve based prediction in ungauged basins (PUB) method and Bayesian bias correction used to build a 1,000-member ensemble of daily Delaware River Basin streamflows for 1945–2023, and how the ensemble supports drought risk assessment with the Pywr-DRB water management model. This work was later published in Amestoy, Hamilton & Reed (2026), Environmental Modelling & Software.